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word wrapping
THE OLYMPICS, WHO WILL WIN GOLD?
Forum  ATP General Discussion
27 Comments
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by fedmanandsuperllama 11 Jul 2012, 8:53 PM - GMT
The draw is yet to come out but who do you think will win gold at the Olympics? This will be the most high-profile tennis tournament at the Olympics, being staged at Wimbledon and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal carrying their country’s flags in the opening ceremony.

The Big 4
It feels inevitable that the title will be won by someone in the top 4. You have to go all the way back to 2010 when someone outside the top 4 won an elite (Masters 1000+) tournament and that was Paris where the top players are usually tired at the end of a long season.

You could make a convincing case for any one of them winning...

*Federer has a relatively poor Olympic singles record (failing to win a medal in three attempts) but this is his best chance at striking gold. His Wimbledon win caps off an incredible 12 months, that has not just confirmed him the most successful grass-court player in history but also the most consistent player at this moment. He has all the attributes to do well on grass, the serve, the slice and an ability to finish points at the net which was crucial in the final. On paper he should be favourite but he’s far from invulnerable as the scare against Benneteau and the surprise defeat to Haas at Halle proves.
*Djokovic is not the most natural grass-courter and that was perhaps exposed by Federer in their semifinal meeting. Nevertheless, before that defeat he was hardly troubled and he proved last year he can win here. He's now had some time to relax and recover from the illness he suggested he had. And he’ll want to put to history the way his last Olympic campaign ended on that awful smash...
*While Nadal, the defending Olympic champion, carries injury concerns (though he has played them down), has had only 2 grass-court wins this season, and hasn’t won off clay since Tokyo 2010. He has probably the most question marks over him of the top 4 but after Federer is the most successful player here.
*As for Murray, he has the home crowd behind him, has the feel and variety to do well on this surface, showed his quality again in navigating through a tough draw to reach his maiden Wimbledon final. But will this tournament come too soon after the final defeat left him so visibly hurt? Slumps have followed other painful defeats such as at Australia... time will tell...

But three-set tennis on grass means it isn’t a foregone conclusion that one of the big 4 win...

Rest of the top 10
Tsonga (twice Wimbledon semifinalist) and Berdych (2010 Wimbledon finalist) if they’re on fire can outhit anyone. Berdych proved it two years ago in a run to the final, whereas Tsonga remains one of the best grass-courters on tour.

Dark Horses
Among the veterans, Roddick’s rankings has fallen but there are glimmers the three-time Wimbledon finalist’s recovery is gaining momentum after winning Eastbourne. Hewitt is also one to avoid in the early rounds after receiving a wildcard. His results lately don’t make good reading but he was dealt tough draws in the grass season. Newport may give him the opportunity to find some form.
At the other end of the age scale I’d expect Milos Raonic to have a good run. The 21-year-old is still learning about grass but his game suits the surface. His biggest asset is of course the serve, and against Federer at Halle he served 25 aces as he came just short of the upset, and is the current aces leader for 2012.
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comment by TAYLOR ALISON SWIFT ♥♥♥
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Join Date: Oct 2010
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 12:36 AM - GMT
  Originally posted by wow
Berdych I said bfor and sticking to him. Mrray can win it too. 3 setter should suit him.

comment by The Mighty Federer (U14335) (akaWOW)
posted 10 hours, 16 minutes ago
I seldom go there as the forum goes dead and some of the posters do act oversmart.
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comment by Steve
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 4:07 AM - GMT
I think two outsiders will win bronze and silver, but Federer will take gold.
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comment by _
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 8:05 AM - GMT
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comment by Doracle Last Edited: 12 Jul 2012, 8:32 AM
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 8:31 AM - GMT
Hard to look past the big 4. They've just been so dominant in any meaningful event for the past 18 months. Federer again for me.
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Europe
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comment by The Infamous Pekster
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 8:46 AM - GMT
maybe with the expanison of the grasscourt season, the liverpool international tournament can be expanded and made into a ranking event, not just an exhibition event
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comment by yummymummy
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 8:51 AM - GMT
A lot might depend on the conditions!
Wet and Windy
Dry and Fine
Roof On
Roof Off


I think Tsonga and Ferrer are a deadly duo to watch!
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comment by Trevor Phillips
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 9:08 AM - GMT
I think recent form and Davis Cup records are the best indicator of who's likely to do well in a tournament like this. Players that are fiercely patriotic tend to do well in team events, so even someone like Tipsarevic could be an interesting dark-horse. It'll be weird seeing BO3 at Wimbledon for the first five rounds though, and surely evens up the field a lot.
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comment by KitKat
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 9:21 AM - GMT
  Originally posted by Doracle
Hard to look past the big 4. They've just been so dominant in any meaningful event for the past 18 months. Federer again for me.

I'm inclined to agree with this, but think out of the top 4, there may well be early upsets.

Murray may be particularly vulnerable in the first round. Depends how the final defeat affects him this time.

Nadal feels vulnerable throughout on BO3 format.
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comment by Trevor Phillips
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 9:29 AM - GMT
I think the final will have really hit him back a few paces, he wanted that badly and the comedown must be mentally tough to come back from. I don't think we'll see a repeat of his negative attitude from the last couple of years after the Australian Open losses, he'll be up for it, but when things get tricky in a match that's when he'll struggle.
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comment by KitKat
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 12:25 PM - GMT
  Originally posted by Bourne
I think the final will have really hit him back a few paces, he wanted that badly and the comedown must be mentally tough to come back from. I don't think we'll see a repeat of his negative attitude from the last couple of years after the Australian Open losses, he'll be up for it, but when things get tricky in a match that's when he'll struggle.

Precisely, it's not just a question of motivation & desire.
I presume there'll be 16 seeds which leaves a lot of potential for very tough R1 matches. I wouldn't want to see him drawn against someone like Raonic.
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comment by Sebadono
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 12:48 PM - GMT
Beat of five final. Winner from the top 4 plus Tsonga/Berdych sextet winning and a surprise semi finalist outwith that group.
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comment by oracle86
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 3:05 PM - GMT
Yeah, the best of 3 format will definitely make things a bit unpredictable, but at the end of the day I think most [if not all] of the Top 4 will make semis.

Can't wait to see how the draw pans out. If Nadal and Djokovic are slotted in the same half, that could be one blockbuster semifinal.
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comment by oracle86
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 3:06 PM - GMT
I do think that they should increase the points for the Olympics though. 750 seems too little to me. Atleast, they should raise it to 1000.
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comment by zxcvb
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 3:08 PM - GMT
Agree, Oracle. Olympics has (I think) similar draw/numbers/BO3 as the Masters, so should have same points.
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comment by Nev
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 3:34 PM - GMT
Yeah, considering that it's now a prestigious tournament that is highly sought after by top players it's a bit scandalous that the points are even less than 2008 in relative terms! Would have expected them to increase or at the very least stay the same
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comment by fedmanandsuperllama Last Edited: 12 Jul 2012, 3:57 PM
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 3:43 PM - GMT
Well in theory you could have a player (who would qualify by ranking) be unable to participate because of the maximum number of players per country is 4/or just because they're not picked by the national selector. In that sense it's very much like the Davis Cup where they've limited the maximum number of points to a small 500/625.

And so as it isn't completely open I think it's fair they're not worth many points
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comment by Nev
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 4:04 PM - GMT
Yeah I understand that and I don't think it should be worth 1000 or more points but I at least think it should be worth as much as in Beijing (800) or maybe slightly more (up to 900) as I doubt the players would think of the Olympics as an event that is halfway between a masters 1000 and a 500 series.

I wonder if pressure from the Cincy and Canada tournies was a factor when negotiations from ranking points was taking place between the ATP and ITF? For them, reduced ranking points is advantageous as a big player is more likely to miss it. And I wouldn't be surprised if a few of the top players avoid one of the masters otherwise they'll play as many as 5 weeks out of six from Olympics until after the US.
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comment by NFK Last Edited: 12 Jul 2012, 4:18 PM
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 4:18 PM - GMT
I suspect Nadal and Djoker might struggle a little with BO3 on Grass, especially if we see a lot of play under the roof. I'd put Fed and Murray as favourites, but Tsonga and Berdchy will fancy their chances as well; I wouldn't be surprised to see a Kohlschreiber/Haas type player in the semis either.
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comment by Nev
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 4:26 PM - GMT
B03 grass will be very interesting, seeing as Hewitt and Haas have both beaten Federer at recent years in Halle and no one is close to invincible in the shorter format apart from Nadal on clay. It really wouldn't be surprising to have a winner outside the top 4 or even the top ten. If one of the top guys reaches the B05 final, it'll be a different story though I should think.

Interested to see how the grass plays after only three weeks of recuperation. CC and C1 are only used to 2 weeks play a year. Also, fitting 5 tournaments into a weeks could become a scheduling nightmare if there's much rain at all!
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comment by oracle86
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Posted 2 Years Ago 12 Jul 2012, 6:03 PM - GMT
  Originally posted by Ruggs
Well in theory you could have a player (who would qualify by ranking) be unable to participate because of the maximum number of players per country is 4/or just because they're not picked by the national selector. In that sense it's very much like the Davis Cup where they've limited the maximum number of points to a small 500/625.

And so as it isn't completely open I think it's fair they're not worth many points


But it is a once-in-four-years event. Over the past decade, the prestige of the Olympics tennis tournament has risen rapidly. Surely it makes sense to give the winner 1000 points. After all, this is the only BO3 tournament with a BO5 final now.
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